Causality between school education and economic growth in Romania

Causality between school education and economic growth in Romania

 

Daniela-Emanuela Danacica

 

Keywords: school education, economic growth, granger causality, cointegration

 

Summary: This study investigates the causal relation between school education and economic growth in Romania, using annual time series data from 1985 to 2009. The econometric approach of this paper is based on the bivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, Granger causality test and unit root test. The empirical results show evidence of unidirectional causality between school education and economic growth in Romania.

 

References: 

Agiomirgianakis, G., Asteriou, D. Monastiriotis, V., Human Capital and Economic Growth Revisited: A Dynamic Panel Data Study, “International Advances in Economic Research”, Vol. 8 (3), pp. 177-187, 2002.

Akaike, H., Autoregressive model fitting for control, “Annals of Institute of Statistical Mathematics”, Vol. 23 (2), pp. 163-180, 1971.

Andrei, T., Lefter, V., Oancea B., Stancu, S., A Comparative Study of Some Features of Higher Education in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary, “Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting”, Vol. 2/2010, pp. 280-294, 2010.

Barro, R. J., Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries, “Quarterly Journal of Economics”, Vol. 106(2), pp. 407-443, 1991.

Barro, R. J., Lee, J. W., International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications, “Oxford Economic Papers”, Vol. 3(3), pp. 541-563, 2001.

Barro, R. J., Sala-i-Martin, X., Economic Growth. McGraw-Hill, New York 1995.

Benhabib, J., Spiegel, M. M., The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development - Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data, “Journal of Monetary Economics”, Vol. 34 (2), pp. 143-173, 1994.

Bils, M., Klenow, P., Does Schooling Cause Growth?, “American Economic Review”, Vol. 90, pp. 1160-1183, 2000.

Bo-nai F., Xiong-Xiang, L., A Study on the Rate of Contribution of Education Investment to the Economic Growth in China, “Frontiers of Education in China”, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 521­532, 2006.

Boldin, R., Morote, E. S., McMullen M., Higher Education and Economic Growth in Latin American Emerging Markets, lasa.international.pitt.edu/Lasa2000/BoldinetalPDF.pdf., 1996.

Chaudhary, A. R., Iqbal, A., Gillani, S. Y. M, The Nexus between Higher Education and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan, “Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences”, Vol.3, 2009.

Cheng, B. S., An investigation of cointegration and causality between fertility and female labour force participation, “Applied Economics Letters”, Vol. 3, pp. 29-32, 1996.

Denison, E., Why growth rates differ?. The Brookings Institution, Washington D. C., 1967.

Dickens, W. T., Sawhill, I. Tebbs, J., The Effects of Investing in Early Education on Economic Growth. Policy Brief, 153, The Brookings Institutions, 2006.

Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, “Econometrica”, Vol. 49 (4), pp. 1057-1072, 1981.

Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 74 (366), pp. 427-431, 1979.

Dickey, D. A., Bell, W. R., Miller, R. B., Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Tests and Implications, “American Statistician”, Vol. 40 (1), pp. 12-26, 1986.

Enders, W., Applied Econometric Time Series. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1995.

Francis, B., Iyare, S., Education and Development in the Caribbean: A Cointegration and Causality Approach, “Economics Bulletin”, Vol. 15 (2), pp. 1-13, 2006.

Gonzalo, J., Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships, “Journal of Econometrics”, Vol. 60, pp. 203-233, 1994.

Granger, C. W. J., Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, “Econometrica”, Vol. 37, No.3, pp. 424-438, 1969.

Granger, C. W. J., Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality, “Journal of Econometrics”, Vol. 39, pp. 199-211, 1988.

Granger, C. W. J., Newbold, P., Spurious Regressions in Econometrics, “Journal of Econometrics”, Vol. 2, pp. 111-120, 1974.

Grossman, G. M., Helpman, E., Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991.

Gujarati, D. N., Basic Econometrics, 4th Edition, McGraw Hill, New York 2004.

Gutema, P., Mekonnen, B., Does Schooling Promote Economic Growth?, “African Development Review”, Vol. 16, Issue 2, pp. 385-398, 2004.

Gylfason, T., Zoega, G., Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape, “CESifo Economic Studies”, Vol. 49(4), pp. 557-579, 2003.

Hannan, E. J., Quinn, B. G., The Determination of the Order of an Autoregression, “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society”, B series, Vol. 41, pp. 190-195, 1979.

Hunang, F., Jin, L., Sun, X., Relationship Between Scale of Higher Education and Economic Growth in China, “Asian Social              Science”, Vol. 5, No                11/2009,

www.ccsenet.org/journal.html, 2009.

Islam, T. S., Wadud, M. A., Islam, Q. B. T., Relationship between Education and GDP Growth: A Multivariate Causality Analysis for Bangladesh. “Economics Bulletin”, Vol. 3(35), pp. 1-7, 2007.

Jaoul, M., Higher Education, Causality and Growth: A Comparison of France and Germany before the Second World War, “A Journal of Comparative and International Education”, Volume 34, Issue 1, March 2004 , pp. 117-133, 2004.

Johansen, S., Juselius, K., Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money, “Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Stattistics” Vol. 52, pp. 169-210, 1990.

Katircioglu, S., Investigating Higher-Education-Led Growth Hypothesis in a Small Island: Time Series Evidence from Northern Cyprus, paper presented at EconAnadolu 2009: Anadolu International Conference in Economics, June 17-19, 2009, Eski^ehir, Turkey, http://econ.anadolu.edu.tr/fullpapers/Katircioglu_econanadolu2009.pdf.

Kui, L., The Interactive Causality between Education and Economic Growth in China, Working Paper Series, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=920624, 2006.

Loening, J. L., Time Series Evidence on Education and Growth: The Case of Guatemala, 1951-2002, “Revista de Analisis Economico”, Vol. 19 (2), pp. 3-40, 2004.

Lucas, R., On the Mechanisms of Economic Development, “Journal of Monetary Economics”, Vol. 22 (1), pp. 3-42, 1988.

MacKinnon, J. G., Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics”, Vol. 11(6), pp. 601-618, 1996.

Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., Weil, D., A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, “Quarterly Journal of Economics”, Vol. 107, pp. 407-37, 1992.

Pindyck, R. S., Rubinfeld, D. L., Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. McGraw- Hill, New York, 1991.

Podrecca, E., Carmeci, G., Does Education Cause Economic                Growth?,

http://www2.units.it/nirdses/sito_inglese/working%20papers/files%20for%20wp/wp096b. pdf, 2002.

Pradham, Education and Economic Growth in India: Using Error Correction Modelling, “International Research Journal of Finance and Economics”, Issue 25, http://www.eurojournals.com/irjfe_25_11.pdf, 2009.

Pritchett, L., Where Has All the Education Gone?, “World Bank Economic Review”, Vol. 15(3), pp. 367-391, 2001.

Ram, R., Educational Expansion and Schooling Inequality: International Evidence and Some Implications, “The Review of Economics and Statistics”, Vol. 72, No. 2, pp. 266-274, 1990.

Rebelo, S. T., Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth, “Journal of Political Economy”, Vol. 99 (3), pp. 500-521, 1991.

Romer, P. M., Endogenous Technological Change, “The Journal of Political Economy”, Vol. 98, No. 5, pp. 71-102, 1990.

Schwarz, G., Estimating the dimension of a model, “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 6, pp. 461-464, 1978.

Shan, J., Tian, G. G., Sun, F., The FDI-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence from China, “Economic Division Working Papers” 97/2, NSDS, Australia, 1997.

Sims, C. A., Stock, J. H., Watson, M. W., Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots, “Econometrica”, Vol. 58, pp. 113-144, 1990.

Solow, R. M., A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, “Quarterly Journal of Economics”, Vol. 70, pp. 65-94, 1956.

Solow, R., Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function, “Review of Economics and Statistics”, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 312-320, 1957.

 

 

Download PDF

Read 1851 times Last modified on Thursday, 27 February 2014 10:56